MacroNeutralSqueeze5/15Engine confidence19%SectorSEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES
Buy now
67/100
Buy signal with medium conviction and a defined invalidation. Risk $11.02 a share — 2.0 ATR — buys $18.02 of objective. The geometry needs 37.9% to break even; the record behind this setup supports 54.9%.
Modeled hit rate
54.9%
verified basis · 3 inputs blended
Breakeven needed
37.9%
1 ÷ (1 + 1.64 reward:risk)
Edge over breakeven
+17.0pp
Positive expectancy before costs
Expectancy
+0.45R
+2.27% per trade · two-outcome
Reward : risk
1.64 : 1
stop 2.0 ATR · objective 3.3 ATR
Half-Kelly
12.5%
engine caps this card at 2.5%
The position in R
Price and risk on one axis — 1R is the distance to invalidation
Risk leg — entry down to invalidationReward leg — entry up to the objectiveAnalog spread (p10–p90)Entry band · last price
Data table
Level
Price
Read
Objective
$234.96
+8.3% · +1.64R
Entry
$215.29 – $218.59
mid $216.94 · 0R
Last
$217.05
+0.1% vs entry
Invalidation
$205.92
−5.08% · −1.00R
Analog p10
$200.16
-7.8% · Bottom decile
Analog p50
$218.60
+0.7% · Median analog
Analog p90
$241.85
+11.4% · Top decile
Edge & expectancy
Blended from the verified resolved-signal archive, the up-rate of historical analogs, and a shrunk score-implied prior. A directional estimate of the plan working, not a barrier-crossing probability.
Buy (all sectors) n=4553weight 45%43.1%
Historical analogs (20d) n=50weight 35%70.0%
Score-implied priorweight 20%55.1%
Kelly on these numbers is 25.0% of the book, half-Kelly 12.5%. The card recommends no more than half, and the risk console below caps it again against your own budget.
What the score is made of
Composite bridge: 50 + Σ weight × (factor − 50); the unexplained remainder is the engine's own overlays.
Weighted factors explain +12.9 points of the move off 50; +4.1 is engine overlays (macro, regime, squeeze, calibration).
Where the analogs landed
50 similar setups · 5 sessions after the setup · a shorter window than this plan, shown as a spread check, not a forecast
Median analog +0.7% · 54% finished higher · decile spread -7.8% to +11.4%.
Invalidation contract
Written before the position exists
exit
Close below 205.92
2 ATR below entry — the thesis is wrong, not early
trim
Objective 234.96
+1.64R — re-underwrite rather than extend
watch
Momentum below 40
Weakest leg of the thesis today at 50/100
watch
Earnings in 35 sessions
The next scheduled re-rate of the thesis
watch
ATR expands beyond 3.8%
Volatility regime change — the stop is no longer where you put it
watch
NVDA composite leaves the buy band
The engine re-scores nightly; the card is a snapshot, not a subscription
Entry ranges are model geometry, not executable quotes.Position sizing uses a hypothetical $100,000 account and is not personalized advice.Signals and inputs can change after this snapshot.The modeled hit rate is directional, not a barrier-crossing probability; expectancy assumes the plan resolves at its objective or its invalidation.Kelly is quoted as arithmetic, not as a size to take — the card recommends half at most.
Confirm simulated buy
This creates a market order in your active QuantLogix paper wallet. No real funds are used.
Save the decision
Log the thesis in Decision Journal and keep a local 7/30-day review checkpoint on this device.
Educational analysis only, not investment advice. Decision Cards are deterministic model snapshots, not recommendations, forecasts or guarantees. Paper trades use simulated funds.