MSFT$397.80-1.1%
Watch
47/100
Neutral signal is not yet strong enough for a full entry; keep it on watch.
The planconviction × inverse volatility, capped by 1% risk budget
Entry zone
$396.34 – $401.04
universe setup
Invalidation
Below $383.01
Exit the thesis, not just the trade
Target
$422.87
1.5:1 reward / risk
Suggested size
1% max allocation
2 shares per $100k example
Bull / base / bearsignal geometry + historical analogs
bull
$422.87
+6.3% · Plan works
base
$400.91
+0.8% · Historical analog
bear
$383.01
-3.7% · Invalidation
Evidence for
✓Fundamentals confirms (84/100)
✓Options positioning confirms (70/100)
✓Market structure confirms (78/100)
✓Similar setups won 70% over 5 days
✓Analyst estimate revisions are improving
Risks to respect
△Technical trend is weak (42/100)
△Momentum is weak (40/100)
△Earnings event risk in 7 days
Entry ranges are model geometry, not executable quotes.Position sizing uses a hypothetical $100,000 account and is not personalized advice.Signals and inputs can change after this snapshot.