Buy signal is not yet strong enough for a full entry; keep it on watch. Risk $15.68 a share — 2.0 ATR — buys $15.68 of objective. The geometry needs 50.0% to break even; the record behind this setup supports 54.4%.
Modeled hit rate
54.4%
verified basis · 3 inputs blended
Breakeven needed
50.0%
1 ÷ (1 + 1.00 reward:risk)
Edge over breakeven
+4.4pp
Positive expectancy before costs
Expectancy
+0.09R
+0.26% per trade · two-outcome
Reward : risk
1.00 : 1
stop 2.0 ATR · objective 2.0 ATR
Half-Kelly
4.4%
engine caps this card at 1.0%
The position in R
Price and risk on one axis — 1R is the distance to invalidation
Risk leg — entry down to invalidationReward leg — entry up to the objectiveAnalog spread (p10–p90)Entry band · last price
Data table
Level
Price
Read
Objective
$548.74
+2.9% · +1.00R
Entry
$530.71 – $535.41
mid $533.06 · 0R
Last
$533.52
+0.1% vs entry
Invalidation
$517.38
−2.94% · −1.00R
Analog p10
$516.66
-3.2% · Bottom decile
Analog p50
$536.76
+0.6% · Median analog
Analog p90
$554.81
+4.0% · Top decile
Edge & expectancy
Blended from the verified resolved-signal archive, the up-rate of historical analogs, and a shrunk score-implied prior. A directional estimate of the plan working, not a barrier-crossing probability.
Buy (all sectors) n=4553weight 45%43.1%
Historical analogs (20d) n=50weight 35%70.0%
Score-implied priorweight 20%52.7%
Kelly on these numbers is 8.8% of the book, half-Kelly 4.4%. The card recommends no more than half, and the risk console below caps it again against your own budget.
What the score is made of
Composite bridge: 50 + Σ weight × (factor − 50); the unexplained remainder is the engine's own overlays.
Weighted factors explain +7.7 points of the move off 50; +1.3 is engine overlays (macro, regime, squeeze, calibration).
Where the analogs landed
50 similar setups · 5 sessions after the setup · a shorter window than this plan, shown as a spread check, not a forecast
Median analog +0.6% · 62% finished higher · decile spread -3.2% to +4.0%.
Invalidation contract
Written before the position exists
exit
Close below 517.38
2 ATR below entry — the thesis is wrong, not early
trim
Objective 548.74
+1R — re-underwrite rather than extend
watch
Market structure below 40
Weakest leg of the thesis today at 43/100
event
Earnings in 7 sessions
Binary event inside the plan — size for the gap or wait it out
watch
ATR expands beyond 2.2%
Volatility regime change — the stop is no longer where you put it
watch
MSFT composite leaves the watch band
The engine re-scores nightly; the card is a snapshot, not a subscription
Entry ranges are model geometry, not executable quotes.Position sizing uses a hypothetical $100,000 account and is not personalized advice.Signals and inputs can change after this snapshot.The modeled hit rate is directional, not a barrier-crossing probability; expectancy assumes the plan resolves at its objective or its invalidation.Kelly is quoted as arithmetic, not as a size to take — the card recommends half at most.
Confirm simulated buy
This creates a market order in your active QuantLogix paper wallet. No real funds are used.
Save the decision
Log the thesis in Decision Journal and keep a local 7/30-day review checkpoint on this device.
Educational analysis only, not investment advice. Decision Cards are deterministic model snapshots, not recommendations, forecasts or guarantees. Paper trades use simulated funds.