MSFT$499.70-2.1%
Buy now
66/100
Strong Buy signal with medium conviction and a defined invalidation.
The planconviction × inverse volatility, capped by 1% risk budget
Entry zone
$497.35 – $502.05
universe setup
Invalidation
Below $487.94
Exit the thesis, not just the trade
Target
$532.94
2.8:1 reward / risk
Suggested size
3.75% max allocation
7 shares per $100k example
Bull / base / bearsignal geometry + historical analogs
bull
$532.94
+6.7% · Plan works
base
$505.29
+1.1% · Historical analog
bear
$487.94
-2.4% · Invalidation
Evidence for
✓Technical trend confirms (60/100)
✓Fundamentals confirms (75/100)
✓Options positioning confirms (62/100)
✓Similar setups won 66% over 5 days
✓Analyst estimate revisions are improving
Risks to respect
△Earnings event risk in 7 days
Entry ranges are model geometry, not executable quotes.Position sizing uses a hypothetical $100,000 account and is not personalized advice.Signals and inputs can change after this snapshot.