Sell signal or insufficient conviction; wait for the engine to recover above the no-trade threshold.
Position
None
The engine is below its no-trade threshold
Reconsider above
$345.34
Price confirmation only — not a target
Composite
43.0/100
Sell · 6–12 months
Modeled hit rate
54.3%
verified basis · no geometry to price it against
Daily ATR
2.11%
What a normal session moves
Review
7 or 30 days
Save a dated checkpoint and re-run
The position in R
Price and risk on one axis — 1R is the distance to invalidation
Risk leg — entry down to invalidationReward leg — entry up to the objectiveAnalog spread (p10–p90)Entry band · last price
Data table
Level
Price
Read
Objective
$0.00
—
Entry
No entry
Wait for a stronger read
Last
$335.29
—
Invalidation
$0.00
—
Analog p10
$325.15
-3.0% · Bottom decile
Analog p50
$339.45
+1.2% · Median analog
Analog p90
$354.15
+5.6% · Top decile
Edge & expectancy
Blended from the verified resolved-signal archive, the up-rate of historical analogs, and a shrunk score-implied prior. A directional estimate of the plan working, not a barrier-crossing probability.
Sell (all sectors) n=3299weight 45%45.0%
Historical analogs (20d) n=50weight 35%70.0%
Score-implied priorweight 20%47.9%
Kelly on these numbers is 0.0% of the book, half-Kelly 0.0%. The card recommends no more than half, and the risk console below caps it again against your own budget.
What the score is made of
Composite bridge: 50 + Σ weight × (factor − 50); the unexplained remainder is the engine's own overlays.
Weighted factors explain +0.8 points of the move off 50; -7.8 is engine overlays (macro, regime, squeeze, calibration).
Where the analogs landed
50 similar setups · 5 sessions after the setup · a shorter window than this plan, shown as a spread check, not a forecast
Median analog +1.2% · 68% finished higher · decile spread -3.0% to +5.6%.
Invalidation contract
Written before the position exists
watch
Market structure below 40
Weakest leg of the thesis today at 28/100
watch
Earnings in 85 sessions
The next scheduled re-rate of the thesis
watch
ATR expands beyond 3.2%
Volatility regime change — the stop is no longer where you put it
watch
JPM composite leaves the watch band
The engine re-scores nightly; the card is a snapshot, not a subscription
Entry ranges are model geometry, not executable quotes.Position sizing uses a hypothetical $100,000 account and is not personalized advice.Signals and inputs can change after this snapshot.The modeled hit rate is directional, not a barrier-crossing probability; expectancy assumes the plan resolves at its objective or its invalidation.Kelly is quoted as arithmetic, not as a size to take — the card recommends half at most.
Confirm simulated buy
This creates a market order in your active QuantLogix paper wallet. No real funds are used.
Save the decision
Log the thesis in Decision Journal and keep a local 7/30-day review checkpoint on this device.
Educational analysis only, not investment advice. Decision Cards are deterministic model snapshots, not recommendations, forecasts or guarantees. Paper trades use simulated funds.