AAPL$319.97-2.5%
Buy now
67/100
Strong Buy signal with medium conviction and a defined invalidation.
The planconviction × inverse volatility, capped by 1% risk budget
Entry zone
$318.38 – $321.56
universe setup
Invalidation
Below $312.04
Exit the thesis, not just the trade
Target
$342.56
2.8:1 reward / risk
Suggested size
3.75% max allocation
11 shares per $100k example
Bull / base / bearsignal geometry + historical analogs
bull
$342.56
+7.1% · Plan works
base
$322.89
+0.9% · Historical analog
bear
$312.04
-2.5% · Invalidation
Evidence for
✓Technical trend confirms (67/100)
✓Options positioning confirms (60/100)
✓Market structure confirms (67/100)
✓Similar setups won 68% over 5 days
Risks to respect
△Analyst estimate revisions are deteriorating
Entry ranges are model geometry, not executable quotes.Position sizing uses a hypothetical $100,000 account and is not personalized advice.Signals and inputs can change after this snapshot.