Buy signal with medium conviction and a defined invalidation. Risk $10.58 a share — 2.0 ATR — buys $15.87 of objective. The geometry needs 40.0% to break even; the record behind this setup supports 53.2%.
Modeled hit rate
53.2%
verified basis · 3 inputs blended
Breakeven needed
40.0%
1 ÷ (1 + 1.50 reward:risk)
Edge over breakeven
+13.2pp
Positive expectancy before costs
Expectancy
+0.33R
+1.02% per trade · two-outcome
Reward : risk
1.50 : 1
stop 2.0 ATR · objective 3.0 ATR
Half-Kelly
11.0%
engine caps this card at 3.8%
The position in R
Price and risk on one axis — 1R is the distance to invalidation
Risk leg — entry down to invalidationReward leg — entry up to the objectiveAnalog spread (p10–p90)Entry band · last price
Data table
Level
Price
Read
Objective
$356.51
+4.7% · +1.50R
Entry
$339.05 – $342.23
mid $340.64 · 0R
Last
$340.67
+0.0% vs entry
Invalidation
$330.06
−3.11% · −1.00R
Analog p10
$326.67
-4.1% · Bottom decile
Analog p50
$340.85
+0.1% · Median analog
Analog p90
$354.28
+4.0% · Top decile
Edge & expectancy
Blended from the verified resolved-signal archive, the up-rate of historical analogs, and a shrunk score-implied prior. A directional estimate of the plan working, not a barrier-crossing probability.
Buy (all sectors) n=4553weight 45%43.1%
Historical analogs (20d) n=50weight 35%66.0%
Score-implied priorweight 20%53.3%
Kelly on these numbers is 22.0% of the book, half-Kelly 11.0%. The card recommends no more than half, and the risk console below caps it again against your own budget.
What the score is made of
Composite bridge: 50 + Σ weight × (factor − 50); the unexplained remainder is the engine's own overlays.
Weighted factors explain +7.1 points of the move off 50; +3.9 is engine overlays (macro, regime, squeeze, calibration).
Where the analogs landed
50 similar setups · 5 sessions after the setup · a shorter window than this plan, shown as a spread check, not a forecast
Median analog +0.1% · 50% finished higher · decile spread -4.1% to +4.0%.
Invalidation contract
Written before the position exists
exit
Close below 330.06
2 ATR below entry — the thesis is wrong, not early
trim
Objective 356.51
+1.5R — re-underwrite rather than extend
watch
Options positioning below 40
Weakest leg of the thesis today at 42/100
event
Earnings in 9 sessions
Binary event inside the plan — size for the gap or wait it out
watch
ATR expands beyond 2.3%
Volatility regime change — the stop is no longer where you put it
watch
AAPL composite leaves the buy band
The engine re-scores nightly; the card is a snapshot, not a subscription
Entry ranges are model geometry, not executable quotes.Position sizing uses a hypothetical $100,000 account and is not personalized advice.Signals and inputs can change after this snapshot.The modeled hit rate is directional, not a barrier-crossing probability; expectancy assumes the plan resolves at its objective or its invalidation.Kelly is quoted as arithmetic, not as a size to take — the card recommends half at most.
Confirm simulated buy
This creates a market order in your active QuantLogix paper wallet. No real funds are used.
Save the decision
Log the thesis in Decision Journal and keep a local 7/30-day review checkpoint on this device.
Educational analysis only, not investment advice. Decision Cards are deterministic model snapshots, not recommendations, forecasts or guarantees. Paper trades use simulated funds.