The Nasdaq Composite secured a fresh record close above 25,114 on Friday, capping the strongest monthly gain for U.S. equities since 2020 even as a divided FOMC kept policy on hold and core PCE reaccelerated to 3.5%. Apple's record fiscal Q2 — iPhone revenue at an all-time high and gross margin pushing 49.3% — absorbed mixed reactions from Microsoft, Meta and Amazon, while Alphabet's raised AI capex guide reignited the picks-and-shovels trade. Beneath the surface, stagflation chatter built: GDP rebounded to 2.0% but Q1 PCE printed 4.5%, energy held near $105 WTI on Strait of Hormuz risk, and a record-low Michigan sentiment read sat uneasily next to a 1969-low in jobless claims.
| Ticker | Name | Theme | Weekly | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | Alphabet | Mega-Cap · AI Cloud | +6.0% | Beat · Raised AI capex |
| AAPL | Apple | Hardware · Services | +3.0% | Record iPhone · Services +16% |
| MSFT | Microsoft | Mega-Cap · Copilot | −3.0% | Beat · Capex digestion |
| AMZN | Amazon | Cloud · Retail | −3.0% | AWS growth in-line |
| META | Meta Platforms | AI Capex · Ads | −5.0% | Flat Q2 revenue guide |
| RGNX | Regeneron | Biotech · Gene Therapy | Outperform | First-ever hearing-loss approval |
| LMT | Lockheed Martin | Defense Primes | −6.3% | Q1 EPS / revenue miss |
| MRK | Merck | Pharma | Underperform | Loss on Cidara M&A charge |
The week pivoted on three crosswinds: a Federal Reserve unwilling to ease into still-hot inflation, a labor market that refuses to crack, and an energy complex tethered to the Strait of Hormuz. The tape rewarded growth and absorbed the friction with surprising composure.
The FOMC held the target range at 3.50–3.75% on April 29 in an 8–4 split — the most dissents since 1992. Governor Stephen Miran favored a 25 bp cut; Hammack, Kashkari and Logan opposed an easing bias in the statement. Powell signaled he intends to stay on as a Fed governor after his chairmanship ends May 15. Fed funds futures still price the next cut for September.
BEA's advance Q1 2026 GDP came in at +2.0% annualized, a clean rebound from Q4 2025's near-stall +0.5% but a touch under the 2.2% consensus. The mix was decisive: AI-led business investment rose +8.7% while the headline PCE deflator jumped +4.5% for the quarter. March core PCE accelerated to 3.5% YoY, an uncomfortable read for a Fed already on hold.
Initial jobless claims printed 189,000 for the week ended April 25 — the lowest since 1969. March nonfarm payrolls (+178k) and a 4.3% unemployment rate remain the policy anchor. Yet the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index hovered near record lows on fuel and tariff anxiety, evidence of a widening split between hard and soft data.
The U.S.–Iran impasse and effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz kept WTI anchored near $105 and Brent near $108, with the IEA terming it an unprecedented supply shock. The dollar held a bid, gold consolidated near $4,571 after a parabolic April, and the 10Y briefly tagged 4.45% before settling at 4.40%.
Mega-cap earnings cleared the bar. Apple printed fiscal Q2 revenue of $111.2B with EPS of $2.01 (vs. $1.95 est.), iPhone at an all-time high of $85.3B and Services at a record $30.98B (+16% YoY). Greater China revenue snapped back to $20.5B (+28% YoY) and gross margin lifted to 49.3%. Tim Cook will hand the CEO seat to hardware chief John Ternus on September 1.
The week's tell was Alphabet: a beat on the top and bottom lines plus a raised AI infrastructure capex guide sent shares up as much as +6% after-hours, reanimating the foundry/networking/power complex. Meta faded −5% on a flat Q2 revenue guide, a reminder that AI capex is being scrutinized for monetization velocity, not just scale.
The Q1 print was a tale of execution. RTX beat (EPS $1.78 vs. $1.52; revenue $22.1B vs. $21.45B est.) and raised FY26 EPS guidance to $6.70–$6.90. Northrop Grumman beat on both lines (EPS $6.14 / revenue $9.9B) on what CEO Kathy Warden called “unprecedented global demand.” Lockheed Martin missed and traded −6.3% on the day.
The week's marquee event was scientific, not financial: Regeneron secured FDA approval for Otarmeni, the first gene therapy targeting an underlying cause of hearing loss and the company's first gene-therapy approval, with no serious adverse events reported in the pivotal trial. Eli Lilly kept the M&A pace torrid with three deals (Profluent, Ajax, Kelonia) totaling up to ~$11.5B, anchoring its AI-discovery and CAR-T pipelines. Merck swung to a Q1 loss of $1.28/sh after a $3.62/sh charge on its Cidara acquisition, underscoring the post-Keytruda runway problem.
| Date | Ticker | Company | EPS Act / Est | Rev Act / Est | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 4/29 | GOOGL | Alphabet | Beat / Beat | Beat | +6% AH · capex raise |
| Wed 4/29 | MSFT | Microsoft | Beat / Beat | Beat | −3% · capex digestion |
| Wed 4/29 | META | Meta Platforms | Beat / Beat | Beat | −5% · flat Q2 guide |
| Wed 4/29 | AMZN | Amazon | Beat / Beat | Beat | −3% · AWS in-line |
| Thu 4/30 | AAPL | Apple | $2.01 / $1.95 | $111.2B / $110B | +3% · record iPhone, Services |
| Thu 4/30 | MRK | Merck | ($1.28) / ($1.51) | $16.29B / $15.82B | Loss on Cidara charge |
| (Prior wk) | RTX | RTX Corp. | $1.78 / $1.52 | $22.1B / $21.45B | Guide raise to $6.70–$6.90 |
| (Prior wk) | NOC | Northrop Grumman | $6.14 / $6.06 | $9.9B / $9.8B | Backlog at $95.7B |
| (Prior wk) | LMT | Lockheed Martin | Miss / Miss | ~$18.0B | −6.3% on print |
A jobs-heavy week. ISM Services (Mon), JOLTS (Tue), ADP (Wed), trade balance and productivity data through midweek, capped by the marquee April nonfarm payrolls release on Friday, May 8. Consensus: payrolls +73k, average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m, unemployment rate 4.3% (unchanged). Preliminary UMich sentiment closes the week. Offshore: rate decisions in Australia, Sweden, Norway and Mexico.
The earnings baton passes from mega-cap to second-line AI and consumer. On deck: Palantir, AMD, Arista Networks, Super Micro Computer, Pfizer, McDonald's, PayPal, Disney, Uber, Kraft Heinz, Viatris and Unity Software. AMD's MI450 commentary and the Meta/OpenAI infrastructure deals will set the next leg of the AI-accelerator narrative.