QuantLogix Daily Brief

S&P Futures

7,418.50

▼ 0.21%

US 10Y Yield

4.68%

▲ 3 bp

Dollar (DXY)

99.86

▲ 0.19%

WTI Crude

$96.40

▲ 1.68%

Gold

$3,712

▲ 0.61%

VIX

18.10

▲ 3.78%

◆Market Pulse

Risk appetite is cooling after a one-day relief rally. Wednesday's session snapped a three-day losing streak — the S&P 500 closed +1.08% at 7,432.97, the Dow +1.31% at 50,009 and the Nasdaq +1.54% at 26,270 — powered by an Nvidia beat and a brief dip in oil and yields. That tone is fading: U.S. futures slipped overnight as WTI jumped back toward $96 on a fresh Iranian directive to retain enriched uranium, and the 10-year yield is pinned near a 16-month high of ~4.68%. The cross-currents are clean — Asia ripped (Nikkei +3.5% on record exports, Korean chip names sharply higher) while the energy-led inflation premium keeps a lid on Western risk. Regime read: risk-on under the surface, but rate- and oil-gated at the index level.

Overnight Futures & Global Cash

US Treasury Curve — 16-Month Highs

◆Overnight Headlines

Reuters04:55 ET

Iran orders enriched uranium kept in-country

Supreme leader's directive complicates any U.S.–Iran de-escalation; crude reverses higher and the Hormuz risk premium re-prices into energy.

Bloomberg16:40 ET

SpaceX files publicly for Nasdaq IPO — ticker SPCX

Seeking ~$80B raise at a reported ~$1.7T valuation; 2025 revenue $18B (Starlink ~$11B) against a $4.9B loss. Largest-ever IPO setup.

CNBCAfter-hrs

Nvidia beats — Q1 revenue record $81.6B, guides Q2 to $91B

Board adds $80B buyback, lifts dividend to $0.25. Huang: “demand has gone parabolic.” NVDA +1.9% post-print; reaction stock-specific.

Nikkei02:00 ET

Japan exports +14.8% — Nikkei surges 3.5%

Fastest export growth since January on a semiconductor shipment surge; Korean chip names (Samsung, SK Hynix) rallied hard alongside.

TheStreet07:10 ET

Gates Industrial +15.8% pre-market on Timken belts deal

Optimism over the acquisition of Timken's belts business; an idiosyncratic industrials pop into a soft tape.

Investing.com05:30 ET

Bitcoin holds near $78K

Crypto steady despite the risk-off drift, tracking the AI-earnings tape more than the macro fear gauge.

IEAOngoing

Hormuz traffic still far below pre-war levels

UK deploying drones, jets and a Royal Navy warship to a defensive shipping mission; oil ~50% above pre-war levels keeps the inflation channel hot.

◆Earnings Radar

Ticker	Company	Period	EPS Surprise	Rev Surprise	Guidance
NVDA	Nvidia	Q1 FY27 (AMC)	Beat	+ Record $81.6B	Raised — Q2 $91B
WMT	Walmart	Q1 CY26 (BMO)	In line $0.66	In line $175.7B	Soft — Q2 ~0.5% light
DE	Deere & Co	Q2 FY26 (BMO)	Awaited	Awaited	Watch ag-cycle
ROST	Ross Stores	Q1 FY26 (AMC)	Awaited	Awaited	Consumer read
RL	Ralph Lauren	Q4 FY26 (BMO)	Awaited	Awaited	Lux demand
DECK	Deckers Outdoor	Q4 FY26 (AMC)	Awaited	Awaited	Brand momentum
ZM	Zoom Comms	Q1 FY27 (AMC)	Awaited	Awaited	AI attach rate

BMO = before market open · AMC = after market close. Nvidia & Walmart figures reported; remainder scheduled for today's tape.

◆Economic Calendar — Thu May 21

08:30 ET Initial Jobless Claims (wk 5/16) Cons. ~215K · Prior 211K

08:30 ET Continuing Jobless Claims Cons. ~1.79M · Prior 1.782M

08:30 ET Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May) Watch — energy cost pass-through

10:00 ET Existing Home Sales (Apr) Rate-sensitive — 10Y at ~4.68%

All day Fed speakers — markets parsing energy-shock inflation path Hawkish-tilt risk

◆Sector Setup

EnergyCrude back to $96 on Iran headlineBullish

SemiconductorsNvidia beat + Asia chip surgeBullish

Defense & AeroHormuz mission, Iran risk premiumBullish

IndustrialsGTES M&A pop; DE in focusNeutral

FinancialsSteep curve helps NIM, credit watchNeutral

Mega-cap TechAI bid intact, rate headwind capsNeutral

Consumer DiscretionaryWalmart soft guide, gas-price dragBearish

Utilities & REITs4.68% 10Y pressures bond proxiesBearish

Overnight Sector Tilt — QuantLogix Composite Score

◆Trading Implications

01 Respect the oil–rates ceiling. With WTI back near $96 and the 10-year at a 16-month high, index upside is capped. Favor relative-value over outright beta — long energy / semis vs. short rate-sensitive utilities & REITs.

02 Trade the AI tape stock-specific. Nvidia beat but post-earnings drift has been weak on the last three prints. Use the chip strength signal from Asia for confirmation; size entries and lean on defined-risk structures rather than chasing the open.

03 Watch 08:30 claims as the swing factor. A hot claims print into an energy-driven inflation backdrop revives stagflation chatter and a hawkish Fed read. Keep VIX-aware position sizing — the gauge is bid pre-open near 18.