◆ QuantLogix Daily Brief

◆MARKET PULSE

Risk-on bid into the open as Nvidia earnings (after the close) sit at the center of the trading session. ES futures are up 0.40% and NQ +0.80% as oil softens on easing US-Iran tensions, gold ticks up, and 10Y yields back off from cycle highs. Regime: CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH — but tape is event-driven, with semi-led leadership extending YTD dispersion and breadth still narrow.

◆OVERNIGHT HEADLINES

CNBC 04:12 ET

S&P futures +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.8% as traders await NVDA

Risk-on flows ahead of after-hours print; AI infrastructure is the singular swing-factor for the session.

Reuters 03:45 ET

WTI -1.83% to $102.20 on US-Iran de-escalation hopes

Crude unwinds risk premium; Brent at $109.10 (-2%). Watch energy equities for gap-down at open.

BLS PRE-MKT

Target Q1 EPS $1.71 vs $1.35 est. — 26.7% beat

Consumer staples bid on the upside surprise; reinforces resilient lower-end consumer thesis into summer.

Bloomberg 05:00 ET

10Y yield holds 4.59% as MOVE softens

Curve flattening pauses; 2s10s at +50 bps. Bond vol ebbing supports duration-sensitive REITs and utilities.

CAVA AH 16:30

CAVA Group +7.5% post-earnings beat to $84.04

Same-store sales blow past consensus; small-cap restaurants poised to outperform on rotation.

Asia Close 02:00 ET

Nikkei -0.44%, Hang Seng +0.48%, FTSE +0.66%

Mixed Asia; Europe firm. UK miners and energy lag on softer commodities; banks and pharma lead the FTSE bid.

FOMC YDAY

Fed funds held at 3.50-3.75% in April; minutes today 14:00 ET

Two-sided risks language flagged in April statement; rates desks watching for hawkish dot-plot leak signals.

INTC PRE-MKT

Intel +4.3% to $115.58 on foundry capacity reports

Bid into NVDA halo trade plus reports of incremental US-sov capacity wins; watch sector breadth confirmation.

◆EARNINGS RADAR

Ticker	Company	Window	EPS Surprise	Rev Surprise	Guidance	Reaction
TGT	Target Corp	Pre-mkt	+26.67%	+1.2%	Raised FY	+5.8%
CAVA	CAVA Group	AH Tue	+18.4%	+3.1%	Maintained	+7.5%
LOW	Lowe's Cos.	Pre-mkt	+2.1%	-0.4%	Cut H2	-2.3%
NVDA	NVIDIA Corp	After-close	EST $1.77	EST $78.8B	Watch GM ~75%	+1.6% PM
ECX	ECARX Holdings	AH Tue	Beat	Miss	Cautious	+5.8% PM

FUTURES — OVERNIGHT % CHANGE

10Y YIELD — 30-DAY

◆ECONOMIC CALENDAR — TODAY

07:00 ET MBA Mortgage Applications (Weekly) Prior: +1.1%

10:30 ET EIA Crude Oil Inventories Cons: -1.4M bbl

13:00 ET 20-Year Treasury Auction ($16B) Watch tail / BTC

14:00 ET FOMC Minutes (April 28-29) Hawkish/dovish skew

16:20 ET NVIDIA Q1 FY26 Earnings (After Close) EPS $1.77 / Rev $78.8B

◆SECTOR SETUP — OVERNIGHT FLOW

Energy +1.01% Supply discipline holding

Healthcare +0.90% Defensive rotation

Utilities +0.63% Yield-curve relief

Real Estate +0.28% Duration bid

Consumer Defensive +0.26% TGT/CAVA halo

Technology -0.62% NVDA event hedging

Financials -1.06% Yield flattening drag

Industrials -1.19% Cyclical fatigue

Consumer Cyclical -1.22% LOW guide weighing

Comm Services -1.51% Mega-cap profit-take

Basic Materials -2.47% Worst overnight

FLAT Semis (vs Tech) YTD leadership intact

SECTOR % CHANGE (1D)

RISK BAROMETER (NORMALIZED)

◆IPO RADAR — THIS WEEK

Ticker / Co.	Exchange	Price Range	Shares	Proceeds	List Date
LNCI	Lincoln International (NYSE)	$18.00 – $20.00	21.05M	~$400M	May 20
SH-TOP	Shanghai Top Numerical Control (HKEX)	HK$26.39	65.33M	~$220M	May 20
ROBOT	Robotphoenix (HKEX)	HK$30.50	24.6M	~$96M	May 18
MAKR	MakinaRocks (KOSDAQ)	KRW 15,000	2.64M	~$26M	May 20

◆TRADING IMPLICATIONS

01 NVDA is the regime gatekeeper. Position size accordingly into the after-close print. A clean beat + Q2 guide above $80B re-ignites the AI-capex melt-up across SMH, AVGO, MRVL. A miss or in-line guide opens a 3-5% air-pocket in semis with QQQ leadership rotation risk.

02 Fade the energy gap-down with discipline. WTI breaking $102 unwinds the geopolitical premium, but supply discipline + summer demand still favors XLE on dips toward 20-day MA. Watch for $98 support — a flush there is a tactical re-entry, not a thesis break.

03 Defensives + duration are the hedge. With 10Y holding 4.59% and MOVE softening, lean into XLU / XLV / XLP as ballast pre-FOMC minutes (14:00 ET). The minutes are the bigger swing factor than market is pricing — hedge gamma into 13:55 ET.

◆BOTTOM LINE

Tape is event-driven and reflexive — NVDA earnings + FOMC minutes are back-to-back binary catalysts inside a single session. Overnight flow rewards defensives and energy, punishes cyclicals and materials, and tells you the market is hedging, not chasing. Sit tighter on gross until 16:20 ET. Keep dry powder for the 09:30 ET Thursday reaction tape.