QuantLogix Daily Brief — May 13, 2026

◆ MARKET PULSE

Tech-led risk-on tone holding overnight as ES/NQ futures press fresh all-time highs despite a hot April PPI print (+1.4% MoM, largest jump since March 2022, vs. +0.5% consensus). Bonds remain the pressure point: the 10Y yield pushed to a one-week high near 4.42% on stalled US-Iran de-escalation talks and an embedded oil risk premium with WTI back above $102. Breadth was uneven yesterday — defensives (financials, healthcare, staples) carried the Dow while mega-cap tech absorbed the inflation headline. Regime read: pro-cyclical tech leadership intact, but rate-sensitive groups vulnerable to any further yield drift; expect sharper intraday rotation around CPI tomorrow and Cisco's after-hours print today.

◆ OVERNIGHT HEADLINES

BLS 08:30 ET · MAY 12

April PPI Shocks Hot at +1.4% MoM

Largest monthly jump since Mar-2022. Energy and goods carried the print; services sticky. Front-end yields repriced +6 bps.

EARNINGS AFTER HOURS · TODAY

CSCO Q3 FY26 — AI Orders the Swing Factor

Hyperscaler AI bookings stepped from $1.3B to $2.1B QoQ. Options imply ~9.9% move; networking rev tracking +21% YoY.

IPO PRICING · TODAY

CBRS Cerebras Prices Tonight — ~$33B Cap

AI silicon competitor to NVDA/AMD; lists NASDAQ Thu. Watch read-through to AI-infra basket and SMH on debut.

GEO OVERNIGHT

US-Iran Ceasefire Talks Stall — Crude Premium Holds

Strait of Hormuz tail-risk pricing back in; WTI above $102, Brent >$105. Energy and defense bid premarket.

CRYPTO 06:00 ET

Bitcoin Slips Below $80.5K on Hot Inflation

BTC -1.1% to $80,389; risk-asset correlation reasserting as real-yield path drifts higher. Watch $78K.

JAPAN ASIA CLOSE

SoftBank FY Results — AI Holdings Mark-to-Market

Vision Fund AI portfolio re-marked higher on private valuation lift. Nikkei +0.7%, semi names led.

FED PRE-MARKET

Post-Powell Transition Watch

Apr 29 FOMC held at 3.50–3.75%; Powell signaled step-aside at term end. Market expects no May move; July odds repricing.

◆ EARNINGS RADAR

Ticker	Company	Window	EPS Surprise	Rev Surprise	Guidance
CSCO	Cisco Systems	AMC Today	—	—	PENDING
9984.T	SoftBank Group	Asia Close	Beat	In line	RAISED
TME	Tencent Music	BMO	+6.2%	+3.1%	RAISED
QBTS	D-Wave Quantum	BMO	+12%	-2.4%	MAINTAINED
LAAC	Lithium Argentina	BMO	-4.8%	-1.6%	LOWERED

◆ ECONOMIC CALENDAR — TODAY

07:00 ET MBA Mortgage Applications (WoW) Prior: +1.7% LOW

08:30 ET Core CPI (Apr) MoM Cons: +0.3% · Prior: +0.4% HIGH

08:30 ET Headline CPI (Apr) YoY Cons: +3.1% · Prior: +3.2% HIGH

10:30 ET EIA Crude Oil Inventories Cons: -1.8M bbl MED

13:00 ET 10-Year Note Auction ($42B) Prior: 4.31% / 2.48 BTC MED

14:00 ET Federal Budget Statement (Apr) Cons: +$210B LOW

19:00 ET Fed Williams (NY) Remarks Topic: balance sheet MED

◆ CROSS-ASSET DASHBOARD

SECTOR PERFORMANCE — MAY 12 (%)

UST CURVE — 2Y / 10Y / 30Y (1M)

◆ SECTOR SETUP

◆ BULLISH OVERNIGHT FLOW

Energy (XLE)+0.9%

Defense / Aerospace (ITA)+0.6%

Semiconductors (SMH)+0.5%

Financials (XLF)+0.4%

Healthcare (XLV)+0.3%

◆ BEARISH OVERNIGHT FLOW

Consumer Discretionary (XLY)-0.5%

Homebuilders (XHB)-0.7%

REITs (XLRE)-0.4%

Utilities (XLU)-0.3%

Long Duration Treasuries (TLT)-0.6%

◆ IPO RADAR

CBRS Cerebras Systems

PRICES TODAY · NASDAQ DEBUT MAY 14 · ~$33B CAP

AI-specific silicon (Wafer-Scale Engine 3). Potential challenger narrative vs. NVDA/AMD. Read-through to SMH, AI-infra basket, and quantum/HPC names. Demand was reported strong; pricing above range likely.

BXDC Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust

PRICES TODAY · NYSE DEBUT MAY 14

Non-traded REIT structure with data-center / digital-infra mandate. Provides public proxy to private data-center demand cycle. Watch for spillover bid into EQIX, DLR, IRM.

◆ TRADING IMPLICATIONS

Position around CPI — barbell, not chase

PPI passthrough risk into core services CPI is non-trivial. Stay long quality tech and selective energy; hedge with TLT puts or 2Y/10Y steepener. Avoid binary bets into 08:30 ET print.

CSCO is the AI-networking tell after the bell

A clean beat + AI-orders raise validates AVGO/ANET adjacency trade. A miss reopens the "AI capex digestion" narrative — watch SMH and tactical hedges on NVDA into Q1 print later this month.

Energy + Defense bid is your geo-hedge

As long as US-Iran path stays open-ended, XLE / XOP / ITA work as portfolio shock absorbers. Trim if WTI tags $108 or if a ceasefire headline hits — the long premium reprices fast.