Risk skewed defensive overnight as traders position for the April CPI print at 8:30 ET — the first read fully capturing the Iran-war energy shock. Equity futures trade modestly lower with the NQ leading the slide on AI-chip profit-taking, the dollar pushing higher, and Brent holding above $103/bbl while Hormuz traffic remains at ~5% of pre-conflict levels. Volatility is sticky but contained at VIX 18.4 — well below crisis peaks, signaling traders are hedged, not panicked.
April CPI hits 8:30 ET — first report fully capturing the energy-price shock from the Iran war. Consensus +0.4% MoM headline / +0.3% core. A hot print could push the curve to fully unwind any remaining 2026 cut probability.
Trump's Operation Project Freedom remains on pause since May 6 amid back-channel talks. Brent holds the $100 handle; Asian energy importers continue diverting supply via Cape of Good Hope, adding ~14 days transit time.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee echoed the hawkish drift, citing energy-driven inflation pass-through. SOFR strip now prices 0 cuts through 2026 — down from 1-2 cuts priced in January.
Nikkei −0.47% to 62,418; Hang Seng flat; KOSPI carrying through its prior +5.12% surge on memory-chip optimism. China CPI miss reinforces PBoC easing bias.
AI-chip newcomer Cerebras (S-1 filed Apr 17) reportedly pricing this week at a $35B+ valuation. AI-IPO appetite remains thirsty despite higher rates.
DAX +0.05% to 24,350; FTSE +0.36% to 10,269. Defense names lead (Rheinmetall, BAE) as NATO mulls higher GDP-spending targets. Euro Stoxx 50 −1.66% on the week into the print.
Bitcoin opened the week at $82,164 — best opening tape since Jan 31. ETF flows turning net-positive 3 sessions running. ETH holding $2,800 zone.
| Ticker | Company | EPS Surprise | Rev Surprise | Guidance | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACHR | Archer Aviation | +12.4% | −3.1% | Maintained — Cert Progress | +0.93% |
| KEEL | Keel Infrastructure | −8.0% | −5.2% | Reaffirmed AI Demand | +8.31% |
| POET | POET Technologies | PEND 5/14 | PEND 5/14 | — | +14.30% |
| HIMS | Hims & Hers Health | AMC TODAY | AMC TODAY | — | WATCH |
| NBIS | Nebius Group | AMC TODAY | AMC TODAY | — | WATCH |
| CRCL | Circle Internet | BMO 5/13 | BMO 5/13 | — | WATCH |
| ASTS | AST SpaceMobile | AMC 5/14 | AMC 5/14 | — | WATCH |
| Time (ET) | Release | Period | Consensus | Prior | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | CPI MoM (Headline) | April | +0.4% | +0.3% | TIER-1 |
| 08:30 | CPI YoY (Headline) | April | +3.6% | +3.4% | TIER-1 |
| 08:30 | Core CPI MoM | April | +0.3% | +0.3% | TIER-1 |
| 08:30 | Core CPI YoY | April | +3.5% | +3.5% | TIER-1 |
| 13:00 | US 10Y Note Auction | — | $42B | $42B | TIER-2 |
| 19:00 | Fed's Williams (NY) Speech | — | — | — | TIER-2 |