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QUANTLOGIX DAILY BRIEF
MONDAY · MAY 11, 2026 · 06:30 ET
PRE-MARKET
ES (S&P)
5,894.25
UNCH
US10Y
4.38%
+1.2 bps
DXY
102.46
−0.18%
WTI
$95.42
+0.61%
GOLD
$4,730
+0.42%
VIX
17.19
+0.64%

MARKET PULSE

Risk markets enter Monday in a holding pattern after the S&P 500 and NASDAQ notched a sixth consecutive winning week (+2% / +4% respectively) — a streak last seen in 2024. Overnight, futures drifted as President Trump publicly rejected Iran's latest proposal, pushing WTI back above $95 and keeping a geopolitical bid under the energy and defense complexes. Volatility remains contained with VIX near 17, but the path of least resistance now depends on this week's PPI print, the May 13–15 Trump-Xi summit, and continued momentum in the AI semi rotation away from Nvidia into Intel, AMD, and Micron.

OVERNIGHT GLOBAL INDICES — % CHANGE

SECTOR PERFORMANCE — YTD 2026

OVERNIGHT HEADLINES

CNBC 05:42 ET
Trump rejects Iran proposal; crude jumps
Strait of Hormuz blockade extends into week three. Oil bid keeps energy & defense in pole position; airlines, consumer discretionary at risk if WTI breaches $100.
REUTERS 04:18 ET
Trump–Xi summit confirmed for May 13–15 in Beijing
Agenda spans trade, rare earths, Taiwan, AI, and Iran. Headline risk in both directions — rare-earth miners and China ADRs sensitive both ways.
BLOOMBERG 03:55 ET
AI chip rally rotates from NVDA to INTC, AMD, MU
Micron logged its best 5-day stretch in 16 years (+30%). PHLX SOX index now +65% YTD — BTIG warns of a potential 25–30% mean-reversion akin to 1999.
WSJ 02:30 ET
Boston Fed's Collins joins hawks; rate-cut path narrows
PCE re-accelerated to 3.5% YoY. Multiple FOMC members now flag hike risk if inflation peaks near 4.5% this summer. Fed funds held 3.50–3.75%.
NIKKEI 02:00 ET
Kospi surges +4.32%; Japan's Nikkei slips 0.47%
Korean tech (memory + display) led after Micron read-through. Nikkei pressured by stronger yen and profit-taking off February's all-time high.
BARRON'S 01:12 ET
CBRS IPO leads $7.43B pipeline this week
Cerebras Systems prices later this week alongside Fervo Energy (5/13) and Global Medical Response (5/13). IPO window wide open — sentiment proxy.
FT 00:48 ET
Defense budget bill: Trump pushes for $1.5T by 2027
+50% from FY26 baseline. LMT, RTX, NOC, GD, LDOS indicated higher; small-cap defense (ITA, XAR) likely to outperform.

EARNINGS RADAR — TODAY

Ticker Company Window EPS Est. Rev Est. Guidance
SPG Simon Property Group BMO $2.98 $1.52 B WATCH
ACM AECOM BMO $1.54 $3.54 B BULLISH
STE STERIS plc BMO $2.86 $1.60 B WATCH
SDRL Seadrill Limited BMO $0.41 $385 M BULLISH
PACS PACS Group BMO $0.62 $1.02 B WATCH
ABCL AbCellera Biologics AMC −$0.18 $8.4 M CAUTIOUS
AREN The Arena Group AMC −$0.07 $58 M CAUTIOUS

ECONOMIC CALENDAR — WEEK OF 5/11

Day Time (ET) Release Period Consensus Prior
Mon 5/1114:00NY Fed Inflation ExpectationsApr3.6%3.5%
Tue 5/1206:00NFIB Small Business IndexApr98.497.8
Tue 5/1208:30Core CPI MoMApr+0.3%+0.3%
Wed 5/1308:30Producer Price Index (PPI)Apr+0.3%+0.4%
Wed 5/1310:30EIA Crude Oil InventoriesWk−1.8M−3.1M
Thu 5/1408:30Retail Sales MoMApr+0.2%+0.6%
Thu 5/1408:30Initial Jobless ClaimsWk232K228K
Fri 5/1510:00U. Michigan Sentiment (P)May66.464.7

SECTOR SETUP

▲ BULLISH SETUP

Energy / Oil & Gas XLE · WTI bid · Iran headlines
Defense / Aerospace ITA · XAR · $1.5T budget push
Semis (ex-NVDA) SOXX · INTC, AMD, MU rotation
Industrials / Datacenter XLI · power + AI capex
Financials / Banks XLF · steeper curve, NIM

▼ BEARISH SETUP

Consumer Discretionary XLY · gas prices & tariffs
Airlines / Cruise JETS · fuel + Hormuz risk
Long-Duration Tech ARKK · sticky rates
REITs (ex-Datacenter) VNQ · yield-back-up
Staples XLP · risk-on rotation drag

US TREASURY YIELD CURVE — TODAY VS. 1M AGO

WTI CRUDE — 30-DAY TRAJECTORY (USD/BBL)

TRADING IMPLICATIONS

01
Stay long energy & defense as a geopolitical hedge. Until the Hormuz blockade resolves and the Trump-Xi summit delivers a constructive readout, the path of least resistance is a continued bid in XLE, ITA, and rare-earth-adjacent names. Use a stop on USO below the 50-DMA.
02
Trim the SOX into strength; rotate within semis, not out. With PHLX SOX +65% YTD and a BTIG correction warning out, scale into INTC / AMD / MU on pullbacks rather than chasing. Pair-trade: long memory (MU, WDC) vs. short long-duration AI software (ARKK).
03
Position defensively into Wed's PPI. A hot print + hawkish Fed-speak crescendo could re-price the front end and stall the equity tape. Hedge equity beta with VIX May calls or SPY May 30 put spreads. Watch the CBRS IPO as a real-time risk-appetite read.