Risk-on regime is firmly in control overnight as the White House signals a one-page Memorandum of Understanding is close with Iran — collapsing the geopolitical risk premium that had propped up crude. WTI is unwinding to $92 (-9%) while equity futures gap higher across the board, led by small-caps (RTY +2.0%) and the Nasdaq (NQ +1.66%) on the back of a blowout AMD print. Yields are bid lower (10Y at 4.38%, -5bps) as Iran de-escalation removes an inflation tail; VIX cracks 17 to a one-month low. Today's tape pivots on the 8:15 ADP read and Musalem/Goolsbee remarks ahead of next week's CPI.
| TICKER | COMPANY | EPS Δ | REV Δ | GUIDANCE | REACTION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | +7.0% | +3.6% | RAISE | +20.0% |
| SMCI | Super Micro Computer | +35.5% | -17.4% | SOFT | -4.2% |
| DIS | Walt Disney Company | +8.1% | +1.2% | RAISE | +3.4% |
| CVS | CVS Health | +16.8% | +5.6% | RAISE | +5.1% |
| PFE | Pfizer | +4.5% | +2.1% | REAFFIRM | +2.2% |
| SHOP | Shopify | -5.4% | +1.0% | SOFT | -7.0% |
| DUOL | Duolingo | -3.2% | +0.8% | SOFT | -7.0% |
| PYPL | PayPal Holdings | +2.1% | +0.5% | MAINTAIN | +1.8% |
The setup heading into the open is decisively risk-on: equities gapping higher across all four index futures, VIX cracking 17, oil collapsing on the Iran de-escalation framework, and an AMD beat that single-handedly reignited the AI infrastructure trade. The standout cross-asset signal is the simultaneous bid in stocks and bonds — a regime shift that says markets are repricing for lower terminal inflation rather than a growth scare. Risk to the bull case sits at 10:00 ET (ISM Services) and 8:15 ET (ADP); a stagflationary surprise (hot prices, soft jobs) would crack the consensus. Until then, leadership is unambiguous — semis, small-caps, transports, discretionary. Position size accordingly and respect the geopolitical headline risk that can re-emerge as quickly as it faded.