QuantLogix Daily Brief

ES Futures

7,263.75

+0.28%

NQ Futures

27,595.75

+0.00%

US 10Y Yield

4.36%

+2 bp

DXY

98.60

-0.18%

WTI Crude

$108.42

-1.04%

VIX

18.00

+0.95%

◆Market Pulse

US futures grind higher into the May open after April closed at record highs — S&P 500 cleared 7,200 for the first time and the Nasdaq logged its strongest month since 2020. Tone is cautiously risk-on: Apple's Q2 blowout ($111.2B revenue, +17% YoY) is offsetting Roblox's guide-down. Yield curve sits at +52bp with the 10Y holding 4.36% as four FOMC dissenters from Wednesday keep a hawkish-pause cloud over the tape. Eyes on ISM Manufacturing 10:00 ET.

◆Index Futures · Overnight % Change

◆Sector Performance · 1D %

◆US Treasury Curve

◆Risk Assets · Overnight Move

◆Overnight Headlines

EARNINGS04:32 ET

AAPL +3.1% pre — Q2 revenue $111.2B (+17% YoY), services hit record $30.9B; iPhone $56.99B beats. Cleared bar with $2.01 EPS.

EARNINGS04:05 ET

RDDT rallies — Q1 revenue $663M (+69% YoY), ad rev +74% to $625M. Strong ARPU expansion across logged-out users.

EARNINGS04:18 ET

RBLX craters >15% — DAU miss + 2026 bookings cut to $7.33-7.6B (was $8.28-8.55B); age-gating drag flagged.

MACRO02:14 ET

Fed kept funds at 3.50-3.75% Wed — 4 dissenters, most since 1992. Powell: core PCE 3.2% drifting wrong way; Gulf energy passthrough a wildcard.

COMMODITIES03:50 ET

Brent fades from $114.66 print on softer Asia demand reads; WTI -1% to $108. Gold -0.6% at $4,580 as DXY ticks lower into NFP week.

CRYPTO05:02 ET

BTC $77,357 (+1.28%) extends recovery from late-April flush; ETH following. Risk-on pulse aligns with equity bid.

ASIA02:00 ET

Hang Seng +1.2%, CSI 300 +1.1% on stimulus optimism; Kospi +0.75%; Nikkei closed for Golden Week. ASX 200 -0.27%.

IPO06:00 ET

May pipeline thickens: SpaceX confidential filing live (~$1.5T target valuation); Anthropic at $380B post-money; Strava sounding May window.

◆Earnings Radar

Ticker	Period	EPS Surprise	Rev Surprise	Guidance	Reaction
AAPL	Q2 '26	+4.7%	+3.9%	Raised	+3.1%
RDDT	Q1 '26	+22.0%	+8.4%	Raised	+9.6%
RBLX	Q1 '26	-12.4%	-2.1%	Cut	-15.2%
MRNA	Q1 '26	+18.0%	+11.2%	Reaffirmed	+7.0%
CVX	Q1 '26	+2.8%	+0.4%	Reaffirmed	+1.2%
XOM	Q1 '26	+5.1%	+2.3%	Reaffirmed	+1.8%

◆Economic Calendar · Today

09:45 ET S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Final) Cons: 54.0 · Prev: 54.0
10:00 ET ISM Manufacturing PMI Cons: 53.1 · Prev: 52.7
10:00 ET ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Cons: 56.4 · Prev: 55.8
10:00 ET Construction Spending MoM Cons: +0.3% · Prev: +0.7%
13:00 ET Baker Hughes US Rig Count Prev: 588
15:00 ET Fed Speak — Williams (NY Fed) Watch: dissent commentary

◆Sector Setup

▲ Set Up Bullish

Technology · XLKAAPL halo + services beat

Communication Svcs · XLCRDDT ad rev +74%

Healthcare · XLVMRNA pull-up; defensive bid

Financials · XLFCurve steeper, +52bp

▼ Set Up Bearish

Energy · XLEBrent fade, soft Asia demand

Cons. Discretionary · XLYRBLX guide-down spillover

Materials · XLBDXY soft but commodities mixed

Utilities · XLU10Y back to 4.36%

◆Trading Implications

Lean into mega-cap quality. Apple's blowout reaffirms the "GARP-y mega-cap" trade; pair long XLK / QQQ against XLY consumer-discretionary weakness from RBLX. Watch Mag-7 breadth — if AMZN/META/GOOGL follow through, dip-buying remains the path of least resistance.
Fade energy strength, respect curve. WTI rolling over from $110+ with Brent below $115 weakens the inflation-pulse trade — trim XLE longs into rips. With 4 FOMC dissenters and core PCE at 3.2%, keep duration small (IEF over TLT) until Williams clarifies the dissent skew at 15:00 ET.
ISM is the swing. A print >53.5 = re-acceleration trade (cyclicals/financials bid, 10Y >4.40%); <52.0 = stagflation whisper (gold bid, defensives lead). Size new positions after 10:00 ET and respect the VIX 17–19 range — gamma sellers active with no NFP today.