◆ QuantLogix Daily Brief

◆MARKET PULSE

Risk-on tape into the open on the back of blow-out Intel results and a three-week extension of the Israel–Lebanon ceasefire, but the bid is narrow — NQ leads while Dow futures lag on continued Hormuz headline risk. Crude is fading its overnight spike, the long end of the curve is bid, and the dollar is soft — a textbook "tech-led, risk-parity-friendly" setup, but breadth remains the swing factor with ~17% of the S&P still to report this coming week.

Regime: Risk-On-Lite · Breadth: Narrow · Vol-of-vol compressing · Positioning: Speculative shorts at 18th pct — squeeze fuel still in the tank.

◆OVERNIGHT HEADLINES

CNBC 04:12 ET

Intel +27% in pre-market after Q1 beat & strong Q2 guide

Data-center revenue inflected; Terafab alliance with Tesla/SpaceX on 14A process adds validation. Pulls entire semi tape higher — SOXX implied gap ~+3%.

BBG 02:48 ET

Trump announces 3-week extension of Israel–Lebanon ceasefire

Crude fades spike — WTI back below $95. Risk-on impulse, but Hormuz remains contested; IRGC still controls the chokepoint.

WSJ 06:05 ET

P&G beats, reaffirms FY sales 1–5% / EPS 1–6% guide

+2.8% pre-market. Staples resilience signal — consumer defensives catching a bid as a tactical hedge into next week's mega-cap prints.

REUTERS 05:30 ET

AMD +12% pre-market — Stifel raises PT to $320 from $280

Analyst upgrade cycle in AI compute continues; positive read-through to NVDA, AVGO, MRVL. Semis lead the NQ gap.

YAHOO 05:55 ET

HCA Healthcare −8.2% on low-end FY profit guide

Hurricane Helene/Milton disruption the cited driver. Weighs on hospital names (UHS, THC) and broader managed-care group.

FED Scheduled

FOMC window opens — April 29–30 meeting next week

No live speakers today (blackout), but Warsh confirmation headlines still a curve-steepener if progress resumes. 2s/10s steepening bias.

TSLA Yesterday PM

Tesla beats EPS ($0.41 vs $0.37) but capex raise to $25B spooks bulls

Auto gross margin ex-credits 19.2% — best in 5Q. Extended-hours pop faded on higher spending guide; −1.8% pre-market.

◆EARNINGS RADAR

Overnight & pre-market Q1 2026 reports — 81% beat EPS, 76% beat rev. (87 S&P names reported YTD)

Ticker	Company	EPS Surprise	Rev Surprise	Guidance	Pre-Mkt
INTC	Intel	+18.4%	+4.2%	RAISED	+27.0%
TSLA	Tesla	+10.8%	−1.1%	CAPEX↑	−1.8%
PG	Procter & Gamble	+2.9%	+0.8%	REAFF	+2.8%
TXN	Texas Instruments	+6.2%	+2.1%	RAISED	+4.1%
CMCSA	Comcast	+3.6%	+1.2%	REAFF	+2.2%
URI	United Rentals	+5.8%	+2.4%	RAISED	+6.5%
LMT	Lockheed Martin	−3.1%	−1.5%	REAFF	−2.4%
AAL	American Airlines	+5.0%	+0.4%	LOWERED	−4.3%
HCA	HCA Healthcare	−2.0%	−0.2%	LOW-END	−8.2%

◆MARKET VISUAL

Sector Performance — Intraday (%)

WTI Crude — 5-Session

◆ECONOMIC CALENDAR — TODAY

Time (ET)	Release	Period	Consensus	Prior	Impact
08:30	Durable Goods Orders	MAR	+1.2%	+0.8%	MED
10:00	UMich Consumer Sentiment (Final)	APR	68.5	68.9	MED
10:00	UMich 1-Yr Inflation Expectations	APR	4.9%	5.0%	HIGH
13:00	Baker Hughes Rig Count	WKLY	—	592	LOW
—	FOMC Blackout Period	—	No Fed speak	—	—

Key forward events: FOMC decision Wed Apr 30. Big-tech earnings begin Wed (GOOGL) → Thu (AAPL, AMZN, META, MSFT). PCE next Fri May 1.

◆SECTOR SETUP

▲ Set Up Bullish

Technology (XLK)+2.30%
Semiconductors (SOXX)+3.10%
Energy (XLE)+2.08%
Consumer Staples (XLP)+0.65%
Aerospace & Defense (ITA)+0.45%

▼ Set Up Bearish

Utilities (XLU)−2.69%
Real Estate (XLRE)−1.95%
Basic Materials (XLB)−1.54%
Healthcare (XLV)−1.36%
Industrials (XLI)−1.24%

◆IPO & NEW LISTINGS WATCH

Ticker	Company	Status	Size / Val	Notes
AVEX	Aevex (Drones)	Priced Apr 16 @ $20	$320M	Opened $23.01 — tracking +18% from offer; defense-adjacent momentum name.
CBRS	Cerebras Systems	S-1 filed Apr 17	~$35B cap	AI chip pureplay — targets May pricing. Key sentiment gauge for AI-infra tape.
—	2026 YTD pipeline	102 completed	+5.2% vs '25	IPO window broadly open; SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Kraken in the pipeline.

◆TRADING IMPLICATIONS

01

Semis lead, breadth follows. INTC + AMD = dual catalysts — look for SOXX/SMH momentum continuation on strength, but fade parabolic moves into resistance: SOXX 240 is key. Pair-trade candidate: long semis / short utilities to press the dispersion.

02

Energy two-sided — use options not futures. Hormuz headline risk keeps crude IV elevated. Consider long XLE via Jun call spreads (delta exposure with capped premium), or calendar puts on USO to harvest term-structure steepness. Avoid naked directional exposure given ceasefire whiplash.

03

Position for FOMC + mega-cap week. With GOOGL/AAPL/AMZN/META/MSFT all reporting Wed–Thu and FOMC on Wed, vol term structure inverts next week. Trim single-name tech exposure into the events, keep QQQ replacement via Jul call spreads; raise cash to ~12% for post-FOMC re-entry dip-buys.