{"ok":true,"stats":{"version":"thesis-options-v1","as_of":"2026-08-27T20:20:05.942Z","overall":{"n":7,"graded":0,"wins":0,"losses":0,"win_rate_pct":null,"avg_pnl_pct":null},"open":7,"by_alignment":{"none":{"n":6,"graded":0,"wins":0,"losses":0,"win_rate_pct":null,"avg_pnl_pct":null},"disagrees":{"n":1,"graded":0,"wins":0,"losses":0,"win_rate_pct":null,"avg_pnl_pct":null}},"by_structure":{"Bear Put Spread":{"n":3,"graded":0,"wins":0,"losses":0,"win_rate_pct":null,"avg_pnl_pct":null},"Long Put":{"n":2,"graded":0,"wins":0,"losses":0,"win_rate_pct":null,"avg_pnl_pct":null},"Bull Call Spread":{"n":1,"graded":0,"wins":0,"losses":0,"win_rate_pct":null,"avg_pnl_pct":null},"Risk Reversal (Bullish)":{"n":1,"graded":0,"wins":0,"losses":0,"win_rate_pct":null,"avg_pnl_pct":null}},"by_verdict":{"BEARISH":{"n":5,"graded":0,"wins":0,"losses":0,"win_rate_pct":null,"avg_pnl_pct":null},"BULLISH":{"n":2,"graded":0,"wins":0,"losses":0,"win_rate_pct":null,"avg_pnl_pct":null}},"cold_start":true,"methodology":["Each priced thesis carries an options read refreshed during the session (a few theses per 30-minute tick, each at most every 6 hours): 252-session IV rank and percentile against the realized-vol cone, the Dealer Flow Daily cluster for the underlying, and five sessions of Large Positioning events plus Whale Tape orders netted by side and compared with the verdict (agrees / disagrees / mixed / none).","A directional verdict also gets ONE options expression — the top candidate from the same strategy composer behind /options-lab, at the medium horizon (17–45 DTE, the T+30 grade window): legs, net debit or credit, max loss / max gain, breakeven and probability of profit (≈ 1 − |short delta|).","The expression's entry value is frozen at first compose. Every later refresh re-marks the same legs at chain mids; when the thesis receives a new grade, is invalidated, or the structure expires, the expression is graded by the sign of its mark-to-mark P&L. Nothing is backfilled and the structure is never re-picked.","The record is public: hit rate and average P&L across expressions, sliced by whether the options flow agreed with the verdict, by structure, and by verdict. Null until something resolves."]},"expressions":[{"slug":"th-mstr-2026-08-07","entity":"MSTR","verdict":"BULLISH","status":"open","published_at":"2026-08-07T17:10:05.105Z","structure":"Bull Call Spread","entry_at":"2026-08-27T14:30:02.690Z","entry_value":7.95,"pop_pct":76,"flow_alignment":"disagrees","iv_rank":35,"dealer_cluster":"pinned","last_mark":{"at":"2026-08-27T14:30:02.690Z","value":7.95,"pnl_per_share":0,"pnl_pct":0,"legs_found":2},"graded":null},{"slug":"th-axp-2026-08-07","entity":"AXP","verdict":"BEARISH","status":"open","published_at":"2026-08-07T20:10:14.137Z","structure":"Bear Put Spread","entry_at":"2026-08-27T14:30:02.690Z","entry_value":9.98,"pop_pct":80,"flow_alignment":"none","iv_rank":29,"dealer_cluster":null,"last_mark":{"at":"2026-08-27T14:30:02.690Z","value":9.98,"pnl_per_share":0,"pnl_pct":0,"legs_found":2},"graded":null},{"slug":"th-jpm-2026-08-08","entity":"JPM","verdict":"BULLISH","status":"open","published_at":"2026-08-08T14:10:11.588Z","structure":"Risk Reversal (Bullish)","entry_at":"2026-08-27T14:30:02.690Z","entry_value":-1.25,"pop_pct":68,"flow_alignment":"none","iv_rank":59,"dealer_cluster":"pinned","last_mark":{"at":"2026-08-27T14:30:02.690Z","value":-1.25,"pnl_per_share":0,"pnl_pct":0,"legs_found":2},"graded":null},{"slug":"th-arm-2026-08-06","entity":"ARM","verdict":"BEARISH","status":"open","published_at":"2026-08-06T14:10:00.581Z","structure":"Long Put","entry_at":"2026-08-27T14:00:01.316Z","entry_value":23.72,"pop_pct":43,"flow_alignment":"none","iv_rank":36,"dealer_cluster":null,"last_mark":{"at":"2026-08-27T20:00:20.001Z","value":23.25,"pnl_per_share":-0.47,"pnl_pct":-1.98,"legs_found":1},"graded":null},{"slug":"th-ftnt-2026-08-01","entity":"FTNT","verdict":"BEARISH","status":"invalidated","published_at":"2026-08-01T20:10:15.272Z","structure":"Long Put","entry_at":"2026-08-27T13:30:20.414Z","entry_value":11.2,"pop_pct":45,"flow_alignment":"none","iv_rank":65,"dealer_cluster":null,"last_mark":{"at":"2026-08-27T13:30:20.414Z","value":11.2,"pnl_per_share":0,"pnl_pct":0,"legs_found":1},"graded":null},{"slug":"th-gehc-2026-07-30","entity":"GEHC","verdict":"BEARISH","status":"open","published_at":"2026-07-30T02:22:00.304Z","structure":"Bear Put Spread","entry_at":"2026-08-27T13:00:18.874Z","entry_value":1.45,"pop_pct":76,"flow_alignment":"none","iv_rank":28,"dealer_cluster":null,"last_mark":{"at":"2026-08-27T19:30:17.805Z","value":1.45,"pnl_per_share":0,"pnl_pct":0,"legs_found":2},"graded":null},{"slug":"th-avtr-2026-07-30","entity":"AVTR","verdict":"BEARISH","status":"open","published_at":"2026-07-30T20:10:14.632Z","structure":"Bear Put Spread","entry_at":"2026-08-27T13:00:18.874Z","entry_value":0.27,"pop_pct":80,"flow_alignment":"none","iv_rank":7,"dealer_cluster":null,"last_mark":{"at":"2026-08-27T19:30:17.805Z","value":0.27,"pnl_per_share":0,"pnl_pct":0,"legs_found":2},"graded":null}],"methodology":["Each priced thesis carries an options read refreshed during the session (a few theses per 30-minute tick, each at most every 6 hours): 252-session IV rank and percentile against the realized-vol cone, the Dealer Flow Daily cluster for the underlying, and five sessions of Large Positioning events plus Whale Tape orders netted by side and compared with the verdict (agrees / disagrees / mixed / none).","A directional verdict also gets ONE options expression — the top candidate from the same strategy composer behind /options-lab, at the medium horizon (17–45 DTE, the T+30 grade window): legs, net debit or credit, max loss / max gain, breakeven and probability of profit (≈ 1 − |short delta|).","The expression's entry value is frozen at first compose. Every later refresh re-marks the same legs at chain mids; when the thesis receives a new grade, is invalidated, or the structure expires, the expression is graded by the sign of its mark-to-mark P&L. Nothing is backfilled and the structure is never re-picked.","The record is public: hit rate and average P&L across expressions, sliced by whether the options flow agreed with the verdict, by structure, and by verdict. Null until something resolves."],"basis":"Paper marks at chain mids (last trade when the quote is absent) — the platform holds no option fills. Dealer positioning is assumed from open interest; flow side is the tape's tick-test inference or the snapshot contract side. Not investment advice.","generated_at":"2026-08-27T20:20:05.961Z"}