{"ok":true,"stats":{"version":"thesis-options-v1","as_of":"2026-10-12T02:05:44.292Z","overall":{"n":16,"graded":12,"wins":6,"losses":6,"win_rate_pct":50,"avg_pnl_pct":11.93},"open":3,"by_alignment":{"none":{"n":14,"graded":12,"wins":6,"losses":6,"win_rate_pct":50,"avg_pnl_pct":11.93},"agrees":{"n":2,"graded":0,"wins":0,"losses":0,"win_rate_pct":null,"avg_pnl_pct":null}},"by_structure":{"Bear Put Spread":{"n":5,"graded":4,"wins":2,"losses":2,"win_rate_pct":50,"avg_pnl_pct":2.41},"Bull Call Spread":{"n":3,"graded":3,"wins":1,"losses":2,"win_rate_pct":33.33,"avg_pnl_pct":-16.89},"Long Put":{"n":7,"graded":4,"wins":2,"losses":2,"win_rate_pct":50,"avg_pnl_pct":-6.76},"Risk Reversal (Bullish)":{"n":1,"graded":1,"wins":1,"losses":0,"win_rate_pct":100,"avg_pnl_pct":211.2}},"by_verdict":{"BEARISH":{"n":12,"graded":8,"wins":4,"losses":4,"win_rate_pct":50,"avg_pnl_pct":-2.18},"BULLISH":{"n":4,"graded":4,"wins":2,"losses":2,"win_rate_pct":50,"avg_pnl_pct":40.13}},"cold_start":false,"methodology":["Each priced thesis carries an options read refreshed during the session (a few theses per 30-minute tick, each at most every 6 hours): 252-session IV rank and percentile against the realized-vol cone, the Dealer Flow Daily cluster for the underlying, and five sessions of Large Positioning events plus Whale Tape orders netted by side and compared with the verdict (agrees / disagrees / mixed / none).","A directional verdict also gets ONE options expression — the top candidate from the same strategy composer behind /options-lab, at the medium horizon (17–45 DTE, the T+30 grade window): legs, net debit or credit, max loss / max gain, breakeven and probability of profit (≈ 1 − |short delta|).","The expression's entry value is frozen at first compose. Every later refresh re-marks the same legs at chain mids; when the thesis receives a new grade, is invalidated, or the structure expires, the expression is graded by the sign of its mark-to-mark P&L. Nothing is backfilled and the structure is never re-picked.","The record is public: hit rate and average P&L across expressions, sliced by whether the options flow agreed with the verdict, by structure, and by verdict. Null until something resolves."]},"expressions":[{"slug":"th-tmus-2026-08-09","entity":"TMUS","verdict":"BEARISH","status":"invalidated","published_at":"2026-08-09T17:39:07.376Z","structure":"Long Put","entry_at":"2026-08-28T19:30:10.522Z","entry_value":8.39,"pop_pct":46,"flow_alignment":"none","iv_rank":48,"dealer_cluster":null,"last_mark":{"at":"2026-09-08T22:15:09.366Z","value":5.7,"pnl_per_share":-2.69,"pnl_pct":-32.06,"legs_found":1},"graded":{"status":"loss","pnl_per_share":-2.69,"pnl_pct":-32.06,"value":5.7,"graded_at":"2026-09-08T22:15:09.366Z","reason":"t30"}},{"slug":"th-asml-2026-08-09","entity":"ASML","verdict":"BEARISH","status":"invalidated","published_at":"2026-08-09T06:49:55.450Z","structure":"Bear Put 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Spread","entry_at":"2026-08-28T16:30:01.646Z","entry_value":3.35,"pop_pct":83,"flow_alignment":"none","iv_rank":80,"dealer_cluster":null,"last_mark":{"at":"2026-09-26T22:15:12.486Z","value":1.57,"pnl_per_share":-1.78,"pnl_pct":-53.13,"legs_found":2},"graded":{"status":"loss","pnl_per_share":-1.78,"pnl_pct":-53.13,"value":1.57,"graded_at":"2026-09-26T22:15:12.486Z","reason":"t30"}},{"slug":"th-orcl-2026-08-18","entity":"ORCL","verdict":"BEARISH","status":"open","published_at":"2026-08-18T14:10:06.656Z","structure":"Long Put","entry_at":"2026-08-28T15:30:18.895Z","entry_value":12.55,"pop_pct":42,"flow_alignment":"none","iv_rank":44,"dealer_cluster":null,"last_mark":{"at":"2026-09-17T22:15:18.755Z","value":7.95,"pnl_per_share":-4.6,"pnl_pct":-36.65,"legs_found":1},"graded":{"status":"loss","pnl_per_share":-4.6,"pnl_pct":-36.65,"value":7.95,"graded_at":"2026-09-17T22:15:18.755Z","reason":"t30"}},{"slug":"th-meta-2026-08-17","entity":"META","verdict":"BEARISH","status":"invalidated","published_at":"2026-08-17T17:10:08.238Z","structure":"Long Put","entry_at":"2026-08-28T15:00:16.887Z","entry_value":30.12,"pop_pct":46,"flow_alignment":"agrees","iv_rank":52,"dealer_cluster":"pinned","last_mark":{"at":"2026-09-03T13:00:07.754Z","value":22,"pnl_per_share":-8.12,"pnl_pct":-26.96,"legs_found":1},"graded":null},{"slug":"th-hims-2026-08-13","entity":"HIMS","verdict":"BEARISH","status":"open","published_at":"2026-08-13T14:10:15.327Z","structure":"Long 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30-minute tick, each at most every 6 hours): 252-session IV rank and percentile against the realized-vol cone, the Dealer Flow Daily cluster for the underlying, and five sessions of Large Positioning events plus Whale Tape orders netted by side and compared with the verdict (agrees / disagrees / mixed / none).","A directional verdict also gets ONE options expression — the top candidate from the same strategy composer behind /options-lab, at the medium horizon (17–45 DTE, the T+30 grade window): legs, net debit or credit, max loss / max gain, breakeven and probability of profit (≈ 1 − |short delta|).","The expression's entry value is frozen at first compose. Every later refresh re-marks the same legs at chain mids; when the thesis receives a new grade, is invalidated, or the structure expires, the expression is graded by the sign of its mark-to-mark P&L. Nothing is backfilled and the structure is never re-picked.","The record is public: hit rate and average P&L across expressions, sliced by whether the options flow agreed with the verdict, by structure, and by verdict. Null until something resolves."],"basis":"Paper marks at chain mids (last trade when the quote is absent) — the platform holds no option fills. Dealer positioning is assumed from open interest; flow side is the tape's tick-test inference or the snapshot contract side. Not investment advice.","generated_at":"2026-10-12T02:05:44.317Z"}